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5 places that told the 2020 election story

WASHINGTON — Somewhat greater than a 12 months in the past, the Meet the Press crew recognized 5 counties we needed to look at as a part of an effort we referred to as County to County. The objective used to be to make use of the ones counties to discover higher tendencies within the voters to get a really feel for the way other forms of citizens have been reacting throughout the 2020 marketing campaign.

With the votes in, the Information Obtain this week digs into the ones 5 counties and what they taught us concerning the election. They became out to be very good barometers for the spaces we needed to grasp.

We’ll cross alphabetically and get started with Beaver County in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar suburb of Pittsburgh that strongly supported President Trump in 2016. We went there to determine if the ones citizens would stand by means of the president on this cycle. Our considering getting into used to be that Beaver would most likely strengthen the president, however he would possibly see little erosion on this the most important a part of his base in Pennsylvania and in different Nice Lake states.

It seems this is in large part what took place. Trump nonetheless received Beaver by means of a big margin, greater than 17 issues, however that used to be some extent not up to he received the county by means of in 2016. And that trend seemed around the Higher Midwest, with Trump profitable once more in key blue-collar suburbs similar to Macomb County in Michigan and Berks in Pennsylvania, however by means of not up to 4 years in the past — losses that might up being the most important in shut states.

In Kent County, Michigan, the previous house of Gerald Ford, we needed to determine if a long-time house of wealthier, established order Republicans would stand by means of the president in 2020. Interviews and ballot knowledge steered they have been the forms of Republicans who have been maximum uncomfortable with him.

And certainly, Kent flipped and voted for Joe Biden this 12 months, after backing Trump in 2016. The county swung by means of greater than nine issues towards the Democrat. And we noticed identical swings in share, if no longer outright flips, in identical counties across the nation, together with Douglas in Colorado and Waukesha in Wisconsin.

In Maricopa County, Arizona, we needed to peer how an enormous rising and diversifying suburban space would reply to Trump after the suburban vote became particularly blue in 2018. Would the ones attitudes lift on in 2020 in a spot such because the Phoenix metro space with its rising Hispanic inhabitants?

Maricopa, which Trump had received narrowly in 2016 by means of about three issues, additionally flipped to Biden, with the Democrat profitable it by means of a little bit greater than 2 issues. The overall margin swing used to be a little bit greater than 5 issues and the win in Maricopa necessarily propelled Biden to win the state of Arizona. And it’s value noting that swings within the giant diversifying suburban space round Atlanta used to be instrumental to hanging Georgia in Biden’s column as smartly.

The County-to-County effort went to Miami-Dade in Florida for 2 hooked up causes. The Florida voter panorama is other than different states and the “Hispanic vote” that analysts frequently describe as a unmarried entity is in fact a particularly sophisticated mosaic of folks and pursuits. Particularly, we concept the Cuban and Venezuelan citizens within the space may well be extra delicate to the phrase “socialism.”

That concept proved to be correct. Of the 5 counties in our staff Miami-Dade used to be the one one the place Trump advanced on his 2016 margin and by means of an enormous 22 share issues. Remarkably, the 2020 effects display that Biden necessarily were given the similar selection of votes out of the county as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, however Trump were given an extra 200,000 votes out of Miami-Dade, a county this is virtually 70 % Hispanic.

And County to County went to Milwaukee County in Wisconsin to peer if Democrats may stir up and convey out their the most important base of African-American citizens. A decline within the selection of votes from Milwaukee used to be a large explanation why Trump received Wisconsin in 2016.

And Biden did make stronger the Democrats’ margin and their turnout in Milwaukee this 12 months. Now not best did he do about 3 share issues higher than Hillary Clinton within the county, he netted more or less 20,000 extra votes. It wasn’t a stellar efficiency for Biden within the county — Dane County, house of the College of Wisconsin became out much more votes — nevertheless it used to be just right sufficient.

Once more, that tale used to be repeated in different giant towns within the higher Midwest, no longer large turnout or margin, however higher than 2016 and, general, sufficient to get the ball around the objective line for Biden.

Those 5 counties, and the 5 tales round them, became out to be the most important parts of the 2020 marketing campaign. And although the election is over, we received’t be forsaking the County-to-County way to political protection. Operating with the knowledge and county kinds of the American Communities Venture at George Washington College, the Meet The Press crew plans to stay discovering puts that lend a hand give an explanation for the country’s sophisticated political panorama.

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