page contents NFL picks against the spread for the divisional round – The News Headline

NFL picks against the spread for the divisional round

One sport that figures to be in a similar way prime scoring on this weekend’s moment spherical is the matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints on the Superdome. The Sunday night sport has an over/underneath general of 52, the second one best possible at the slate after the Chiefs-Browns sport (56½).

Since 2002, playoff video games performed indoors have long past over the whole in 22 of 34 contests (.647), together with 10 of 14 instances (.714) within the divisional spherical. Playoff groups coached by means of Sean Payton or Bruce Arians have long past over the whole 11 of 18 instances (.611), and when the 2 males have coached towards one any other within the common season, the over has hit 5 of 7 instances (.714).

This is how we predict this week’s playoff groups to fare towards the consensus level spreads (as of Wednesday morning) from a couple of sports activities books in Las Vegas.

Saturday

Los Angeles Rams at Inexperienced Bay Packers (-6½)

Select: Inexperienced Bay Packers -6½

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed the common season because the league’s most precious passer, consistent with ESPN’s Overall Quarterback Score, giving the Rams’ protection a difficult problem. Los Angeles completed moment within the NFL with 53 sacks, however Inexperienced Bay’s offensive line was once rated because the second-best pass-blocking unit within the NFL by means of Professional Soccer Center of attention, permitting Rodgers to be confused on simply 24 p.c of his drop-backs, the third-lowest price throughout the common season. And when Rodgers was once confused, he controlled to throw 8 touchdowns with only one interception.

Plus, Rodgers is a great wager coming off a long relaxation. Since 2008, his first 12 months as Inexperienced Bay’s beginning quarterback, the Packers are Nine-Three-1 towards the unfold coming off no less than 12 days of relaxation within the common season and playoffs, overlaying by means of virtually 5 issues consistent with sport on moderate. On the other hand, don’t be expecting this one to move over the whole (45½). Rodgers and the Packers have long past underneath the whole seven out in their final 10 instances in that state of affairs.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Expenses (-2½)

Those groups final met throughout the 2019 common season, a 24-17 Ravens win in Buffalo, and you’ll be expecting Baltimore to move with a identical defensive sport plan this time round. Baltimore’s protection blitzed Expenses quarterback Josh Allen on 32 of his 46 drop-backs, sacking him six instances in that sport. The Ravens led the league in blitz price in 2020, bringing an additional guy to pursue the quarterback 44 p.c of the time.

On the other hand, Allen has progressed considerably towards the blitz this season, finishing 66 p.c of his passes and averaging 7.eight yards consistent with strive. His sack price when blitzed has additionally plummeted from 10 p.c in 2019 to 4 p.c in 2020, together with final week’s playoff win over the Colts. His passer ranking towards the blitz, in the meantime, has jumped from 78.four to 111.6 in a single season.

Sunday

Cleveland Browns at Kansas Town Chiefs (-10)

Select: Cleveland Browns +10

If there may be a method Cleveland can exploit Kansas Town’s defensive weak spot, it’s by way of the operating sport. The Browns ran for the 1/3 maximum yards within the NFL this season (2,374), and their main rusher, Nick Chubb, led the league with four.1 yards consistent with lift after touch. His teammate, Kareem Hunt, tied for the 6th maximum yards consistent with lift after touch (Three.2). Chubb additionally led the league within the proportion of yardage earned on rushes of 15 or extra yards (429 out of one,065 yards, 40 p.c). Kansas Town, in the meantime, had the second-worst run protection throughout the common season after adjusting for energy of time table, consistent with Soccer Outsiders.

Will the good fortune of Chubb and Hunt be sufficient for Cleveland to win the sport outright? Most likely now not, but it surely must stay Browns nearer than 10 issues.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-Three)

Select: New Orleans Saints -Three

The Saints will probably be searching for a three-game sweep in their department rival when they beat the Buccaneers 34-23 at house in Week 1 and throttled them 38-Three in Tampa Bay in Week Nine. In the ones two video games, New Orleans held quarterback Tom Brady to 45 of 74 passing for 410 yards, two touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Brady had 3 interceptions with out a landing in the second one assembly, which got here simply because the New Orleans protection began to hit its stride.

Together with that sport, the Saints’ protection stored 9 issues consistent with contest in the second one part of the season according to the down, distance and box place of each and every play towards them, consistent with knowledge from TruMedia. That was once fairly the turnaround, taking into consideration its protection price New Orleans 8 issues consistent with sport over the primary 8 weeks of the 12 months, which ranked 23rd.

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