page contents Best bets for 2018 Preakness include the favorite Justify – The News Headline

Best bets for 2018 Preakness include the favorite Justify

Kentucky Derby winner Justify, who’s unbeaten in 4 begins, will tackle seven different horses from the No. 7 put up place at Pimlico within the 141st Preakness Stakes on Saturday.

Justify, the 1-2 morning-line favorite, has won two Grade I stakes, the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby, and has not been worse than second at any call since breaking his maiden at Santa Anita in February. With more early speed to contend with in the Preakness, Justify will again have to sit off the pace for the win, but his record-setting TimeForm speed figures to start his career display he’s greater than as much as the duty.

Plus, horses completing within the cash on the Kentucky Derby have accounted for 15 of the previous 21 Preakness winners. 11 of the ones gained the Run for the Roses, leaving 4 runners-up who had been additionally a hit in the second one leg of the Triple Crown at Pimlico. Just right Magic confirmed tactical pace within the Kentucky Derby — he used to be 5th on the first name and 2nd in the back of Justify at the second one name — in addition to in his win within the Grade II Blue Grass at Keeneland, which featured a faster-than-normal tempo. His general pace tasks him to be in the back of Justify by means of a substantial margin but rapid sufficient to be regarded as two lengths quicker than the remainder of the sphere.

You gained’t make an enormous rating going with the highest two possible choices on the best of your price tag — since 2013, the primary 12 months horses needed to qualify for the Kentucky Derby during the issues gadget — the Preakness exacta has returned and moderate of $126.16 on a $2 wager, not up to the Kentucky Derby ($254.13) and Belmont Stakes ($199.86). Nonetheless, there might be some excellent returns in having a bet the trifectas and superfectas.

When on the lookout for horses to spherical out your unique tickets, center of attention on the ones coming off a best end in a big Grade I race, ideally one breaking from center and out of doors posts on Saturday. It additionally is helping if their Brisnet late pace speed figure, a metric that measures how fast a horse ran from the pre-stretch call to the finish, is above 100 in their last race before the Preakness: Five of the past 12 long shots (10-1 odds or higher) to hit the board met that criteria heading into the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Quip finished second in the Grade I Arkansas Derby but closed fast, earning a 107 Brisnet LP speed figure from the last call to the finish. Tenfold earned a 108 Brisnet LP speed figure from the last call to the finish in that same race, where he finished fifth. Since 1963, 54 horses breaking from Post 1 have a record of just 2-7-9, the two winners being Tabasco Cat in 1994 and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015, perhaps casting some doubt on Quip’s chances to finish in the money.

PP Horse M/L Odds Last race Finish in last race LP in last race
1 Quip 12-1 Arkansas Derby (G1) 2nd 107
2 Lone Sailor 15-1 Kentucky Derby (G1) 8th 95
3 Sporting Chance 30-1 Pat Day Mile (G3) 4th 82
4 Diamond King 30-1 Federico Tesio Stakes 1st 95
6 Tenfold 20-1 Arkansas Derby (G1) 5th 108
8 Bravazo 20-1 Kentucky Derby (G1) 6th 91

In an eight-horse field it becomes less cumbersome to use multiple contenders in the trifecta or superfecta, so here’s how you could create exotic tickets that maximize your value.

Trifecta betting strategies 

This looks like a two-horse race, so key Justify and Good Magic in the top two spots and then use Quip and Tenfold in the place spot. This won’t make you rich, but the Preakness doesn’t lend itself to surprises. An alternative is to use Justify and Good Magic up top and then take advantage of the 50-cent trifecta option to use all the remaining horses in the third slot at a cost of $6.

Superfecta betting strategy

Don’t overthink it. Justify and Good Magic to finish 1-2 and then mash the “All” button for the next two spots. At 10 cents per ticket, this strategy only costs $6 yet the median return has been $186.24 on 10-cent super tickets over the past 18 years.

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