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NFL best bets and picks Dolphins Patriots


Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins have the chances — and historical past — of their choose as 19-point underdogs towards the Patriots. (Brynn Anderson/AP)

September 12 at 5:56 AM

Week 1 had a little bit of everything. The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers kicked off the NFL’s 100th season with a 10-3 snoozer, the lowest scoring NFL season opener since 1984. The New England Patriots started their title defense with a 33-3 destruction of the Pittsburgh Steelers, then signed disgruntled wideout Antonio Brown, who, on Tuesday, was accused of rape and sexual assault in federal lawsuit. And the Miami Dolphins played so poorly reports surfaced that “multiple Dolphins players” were on the cusp of demanding trades elsewhere.

Some of those teams mentioned, and a few others, are featured in this week’s best bets, where our league-projection formula helps determine how often one team should beat another based on actual and projected win rates. That gives us win probabilities for every game, as well as an implied margin of victory — helpful for picking games against the spread.

Here are this week’s prime picks against the consensus point spreads (as of Thursday morning) from multiple sports books in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-19)

Pick: Miami Dolphins +19

The Patriots opened as massive betting favorites over the Dolphins entering this divisional matchup (14½-point favorite on Sept. 8), and the spread has only continued to rise since then.

A 19-point spread is rare. Since 2002, the year the NFL expanded to 32 teams, there have been seven matchups involving at least a 19-point favorite. Only one, the Seattle Seahawks over the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2013, covered. New England accounted for four of the non-covering events.

Meanwhile, Miami Coach Brian Flores liked what he saw from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in the Dolphins’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, and announced Fitzpatrick would start against the Patriots. Fitzpatrick didn’t have the “Fitzmagic” we saw last season, but a lack of a consistent running game (Miami’s three running backs combined for 12 yards on 10 carries) and lack of pass protection (pressured on 15 of 33 drop backs) against the Ravens contributed to his foibles.

New England’s pass rush and run defense are both projected to be worse than Baltimore’s in 2019 per Pro Football Focus, giving Miami a chance to keep this close. And by close, I mean within 14 points.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Detroit Lions

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

Detroit lost an 18-point lead and ended Week 1 with a tie against the Arizona Cardinals. That collapse was, in part, facilitated by the poor play of Lions’ left tackle Taylor Decker and right tackle Rick Wagner. Decker allowed two sacks, a hit and four hurries while Wagner was responsible for one sack, two hits and four hurries on Sunday, leading to quarterback Matthew Stafford seeing pass pressure on 24 of his 51 drop backs.

In Week 2 the Lions can have their arms complete with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, two edge rushers that ranked 19th and 24th, respectively, ultimate yr for his or her pass-rushing skill, consistent with the sport charters at Professional Soccer Center of attention. That’s unhealthy information for Stafford, who noticed his quarterback score drop ultimate yr from 96.zero in a blank pocket to 71.Three when going through force, more or less the variation in efficiency between Professional Bowlers Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen in 2018.

Chicago Bears (-2.Five) at Denver Broncos

Pick out: Chicago Bears -2.Five

The Bears struggled to attain issues all the way through the season opener towards the Packers however Chicago’s protection was once as nasty as marketed.

Final yr’s Professional Bowl starters — linebacker Khalil Mack, cornerback Kyle Fuller, defensive take on Akiem Hicks and protection Eddie Jackson — along side trade Leonard Floyd, are complemented by way of linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive finish Roy Robertson-Harris. Smith was once credited with 5 tackles and Robertson-Harris chipped in on two sacks (one credited to him), one hit and two hurries towards Inexperienced Bay.

Denver, alternatively, controlled simply two issues consistent with power ultimate week, with a 25 p.c potency within the crimson zone towards the Oakland Raiders, a protection anticipated to be the fifth-worst of 2019 consistent with Soccer Outsiders.

The 3 video games above constitute our absolute best performs of the week as a result of our research displays the purpose spreads are essentially the most divergent from what we think to occur as soon as the groups take the sphere. Beneath are alternatives for the opposite video games in this week’s time table. Alternatively, attempting to pick out each and every unmarried NFL recreation is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so regularly partially as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the chances aren’t of their choose. Stay that during thoughts when comparing the rest video games from the Week 2 slate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.Five)

Pick out: Carolina Panthers -6.Five

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.Five)

Pick out: San Francisco 49ers +1.Five

Minnesota Vikings at Inexperienced Bay Packers (-Three)

Pick out: Minnesota Vikings +Three

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-Eight.Five)

Pick out: Houston Texans -Eight.Five

Buffalo Expenses (-2) at New York Giants

Pick out: Buffalo Expenses -2

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-Three)

Pick out: Tennessee Titans -Three

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-Four)

Pick out: Seattle Seahawks +Four

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-13.Five)

Pick out: Arizona Cardinals +13.Five

Dallas Cowboys (-Five) at Washington Redskins

Pick out: Dallas Cowboys -Five

Kansas Town Chiefs (-Eight) at Oakland Raiders

Pick out: Kansas Town Chiefs -Eight

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-Three)

Pick out: New Orleans Saints +Three

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.Five) at Atlanta Falcons

Pick out: Philadelphia Eagles -1.Five

Cleveland Browns (-2.Five) at New York Jets

Pick out: Cleveland Browns -2.Five

Learn extra from The Publish:

NFL will believe striking Antonio Brown on paid depart and making him ineligible to play

Raiders’ Gareon Conley anticipated to recuperate after struggling a frightening damage in an bizarre collision

‘Now not unhealthy for a operating again’: Lamar Jackson solutions critics with dominant Week 1

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